After eight years, Disney has finally brought back Tim Allen as Santa Claus. One has to wonder if it wasn't just a tad too late. The Santa Clause 2 should be able to make at least $25 million this weekend with hopes of achieving legs mirroring The Ring. That film slipped only 6% from last Friday, and if it can play through December, has a good shot at $150 million. Meanwhile, I Spy marks the third straight bomb for Eddie Murphy.
The Santa Clause 2
The Disney film pulled in an estimated $7.5 million on Friday. Although this is not coal in the stocking of the filmmakers, it also isn't a Red Ryder carbine action, 200-shot range model air rifle. Most Disney non-summer films have internal multipliers around 3.5. This one should be no exception. The Santa Clause 2 should bring Tim Allen $27.1 million this weekend. That ends an almost Eddie Murphy-like streak of bombs for the Home Improvement star. Hopefully, The Santa Clause 2 will follow in the footsteps of other recent family sequels like Spy Kids 2 and Dr. Doolittle 2 and have good legs. If that happens, maybe Disney won't wait as long for the third film.
I Spy
The Eddie Murphy film took in a surprisingly-low estimated $4.25 million on Friday. It's not really that surprising, I guess, considering the ad campaign. Mental note for Sony: The next time you team up Eddie Murphy and Owen Wilson in a Betty Thomas comedy, give them something funny to say. Double-O-nine-and-a-half just doesn't make people laugh. As a generic, semi-adult action comedy, I Spy should get around a three internal multiplier. That would give the film about $12.5 million this weekend, with not much hope of profit. I guess Sony should have fired all six writers for I Spy. Or maybe they should have hired a seventh one?
Notable Holdovers
As I already mentioned, The Ring only dropped 6% from last Friday. If it holds that pace for the weekend, that would give the Naomi Watts horror/mystery $17.4 million for this frame and $63.8 million overall. A $100 million total is a lock at this point, as is $125 million. Once again, this film shows that word-of-mouth is separate from the legs of a film. It doesn't matter how much the people who see a movie like it, only how many people who haven't seen it want to. Plus, a satisfying twist ending usually means a long life at the box office.
jackass: the movie dropped 57% from last Friday. Considering the rush to see this film, that's not too bad. A 49% drop for the weekend would give MTV Films another $11.6 million worth of insurance for jackass 2.
Punch-Drunk Love only increased 16% from last Friday even after adding over 700 theatres. The Onion put it best: Adam Sandler fans are disappointed in his intelligent, nuanced performance, so much so that the PT Anderson film probably will end up making less than either Boogie Nights or Magnolia. Not to worry; fans, I'm sure Happy Gilmore 2 isn't far away.
Check back tomorrow, when John Hamann will have weekend estimates and commentary.
Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten
Projected Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
The Santa Clause 2
27.1
2
The Ring
17.4
3
I Spy
12.5
4
jackass: the movie
11.6
5
Ghost Ship
6.4
6
My Big Fat Greek Wedding
5.3
7
Sweet Home Alabama
4.1
8
Punch-Drunk Love
3.8
9
Red Dragon
2.3
10
Brown Sugar
1.5
Internal multiplier = A comparison of Friday's numbers to the rest of the
weekend. So if Sweet Home Alabama makes $5.1 million
on Friday and $17.8 million for the whole weekend, then its internal
multiplier is 3.5 ($17.8 million / $5.1 million = 3.5).
Analysts use this number in reverse to predict weekend numbers from Friday's
numbers.
