I'd like to take this opportunity to explain the genesis behind the idea for the video rentals database. Shortly before David Mumpower introduced his ideas for Box Office Prophets to our group, I observed a debate about the potential box office for American Pie 2 on a movies discussion board. During the course of that exchange, one individual mentioned the fact that American Pie was a hit on video. It was at that point that I started wondering where a person might be able to obtain information on video rentals and sales.

As I searched, I discovered two things. First, locating data for video rentals is extremely cumbersome. It is certainly available and can be located by searching the archives of various sites, but it is not easily accessible in any one location. Second, video sales data (other than a weekly top 20 listing) is simply unavailable. It's possible to find some stray numbers here and there, but my research has shown that those numbers are currently not released for public viewing. Still, as I looked at the numbers that were available to me, I started noticing that certain movies performed much better as rentals than they did in theatres. And I realized that sifting through rental revenue is an excellent way to uncover potential future box-office surprises.

Had prognosticators taken into account the fact that Deuce Bigelow: Male Gigolo made over $75 million in rental receipts versus its $65 million take in theatres, the breakout opening weekend performance of Rob Schneider's follow-up release, The Animal, might not have been so shocking. Rental receipts are just another valuable piece of the puzzle to be considered when predicting future box office.

And now I'll finish where I started by saying that the person who pointed out that American Pie was a video success was absolutely correct. It pulled in just short of $70 million in rental revenue, numbers which likely bode well for the opening weekend possibilities for its sequel.