Kim Hollis Extrapolates Weekend Estimates
Using Friday's Data
Saturday, September 15, 2001
The question of whether audiences would look to movie theaters for escape was answered resoundingly on Friday, as the day's top money-maker finished with a smaller take for the day than last week's number two film had on its opening day. On the other hand, some of the older holdovers had strong staying power, showing that people will head to the cineplex for quality product.
Hardball, the Keanu Reeves film about an inner-city baseball team, had a $2.5 million Friday. Sports-themed films can have weekend multipliers in excess of 3.0 (The Replacements, 3.24; Remember the Titans, 3.03), though Varsity Blues, which comes from the same director that did Hardball, increased by a factor of 2.82. After reviewing internal multipliers for past weekends that have followed particularly newsworthy events (though the terrorist attacks are clearly unprecedented historically), it does appear that the 3+ multiplier holds up. Hardball looks to win the weekend with a figure just shy of $8 million.
A movie that was primarily tracking strongly with young women, Sony's The Glass House took in $1.95 million yesterday. Considering that this Leelee Sobieski vehicle saw considerably less marketing attention than Hardball and that it was given some 500 fewer screens, it didn't perform too poorly in comparison. Its probable multiplier doesn't look promising, though. Looking at similarly-themed and -targeted films (Teaching Mrs. Tingle, 2.69; Disturbing Behavior, 2.52), The Glass House appears likely to finish with a Friday-to-Sunday multiplier of around 2.5, for a weekend total of just over $5 million.
Looking at last week's openers, The Musketeer did $1.65 million yesterday, dropping 52.6% from last Friday. This precipitous drop is not particularly surprising, given the film's horrific reviews and poor CinemaScores. With a reported budget in excess of $50 million, this film has a long way to go before it has a chance at being profitable. Two Can Play That Game didn't hold up particularly well, either, with its $1.36 million total yielding a 49.6% drop. With a 48% drop for the weekend, the comedy appears headed for a total of $4 million for Friday through Sunday. Rock Star had a similar drop, falling 48.8% to $1.04 million. It should have a weekend total right around $3.2 million.
The Others continues to flex its muscle as far as staying power. Its $1.36 million total Friday is a mere 18.1% drop. With just under $5 million looking likely for this weekend, The Others will be crossing the $70 million mark on its way to a probable $80 million final. Rush Hour 2 held even stronger, as its $1.16 million take yesterday represents a drop of only 16.5%. Currently sitting at a massive $207 million, a weekend total of $4.8 million looks probable for the buddy film.
Jeepers Creepers dropped rather heavily again, though it did show improvement from last week. When the numbers start getting this small, it's easier for movies to have relatively strong showings, comparatively speaking. Its total yesterday of $1.1 million represents a 42.7% drop from last Friday. Nonetheless, MGM/American Zoetrope have to be thrilled with this little film's performance, since its eventual final total of over $30 million should be quite profitable, given the reported $10 million budget.
The weakest of the longer-term holdovers was American Pie 2, dropping 28.7% with a Friday total of $1.02 million. It should manage just under $3.5 million for the weekend, and will cross $135 million in total box office to date. Rat Race fell 17.5% from last Friday, with a take of $.99 million yesterday. It looks to pull about $3.75 for the weekend as the film will approach, but not quite hit, the $50 million mark.
Unless some major news in relation to the tragedies in New York City and Washington, DC develops, the top ten should still manage to beat the numbers from the same weekend in 2001 by 23.5%. It's interesting to note that last year's number one film, The Watcher, also starred Keanu Reeves; however, it managed only $5.8 million.
|
Friday-to-Friday Drop-Offs
|
Film |
Fri-Fri Depreciation |
Estimated Weekend Depreciation |
| The Musketeer | 52.6% | 50% |
| The Others | 18.1% | 17% |
| Two Can Play That Game | 49.6% | 48% |
| Rush Hour 2 | 16.5% | 16% |
| Jeepers Creepers | 42.7% | 43% |
| Rock Star | 48.8% | 47% |
| American Pie 2 | 28.7% | 26% |
| Rat Race | 17.5% | 16% |
|
Extrapolated Estimates for the Top Ten
|
Projected
Rank |
Film |
Estimated Gross ($) |
| 1 | Hardball | 7.70 |
| 2 | The Glass House | 5.05 |
| 3 | The Others | 4.98 |
| 4 | The Musketeer | 4.95 |
| 5 | Rush Hour 2 | 4.83 |
| 6 | Two Can Play That Game | 4.01 |
| 7 | Rat Race | 3.75 |
| 8 | Jeepers Creepers | 3.55 |
| 9 | American Pie 2 | 3.49 |
| 10 | Rock Star | 3.19 |
View other columns by Kim Hollis
