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Friday Box Office AnalysisBy John HamannMarch 20, 2004
Box office was smoking hot on Friday, as all three openers performed admirably on their first full day of release. There’s going to be a new sheriff of the box office come tomorrow morning, and it certainly ain’t going to be Jesus.
Dawn of the DeadIt’s a grand day for Richard P. Rubinstein, as the windfall has hit for his cult classic Dawn of the Dead. Rubinstein, who produced the original zombie flick, has to be happy with an $11.7 million first day gross for the R-rated horror film. The internal multiplier for Dawn is a bit tricky; this is a Friday night film with a built in sequel-like audience, but great reviews (currently 78% fresh at RottenTomatoes) could bring the multiplier up somewhat. So, instead of a Texas Chainsaw Massacre 2.65, estimate a 2.9 multiplier for a potential opening weekend gross of $33.8 million, well ahead of its $28 million production budget. That would make Dawn of the Dead the second biggest opening ever for the month of March.
Taking LivesThe hot new thriller from Warner Bros. and recently Matrix-wounded Village Roadshow got of to a decent start on Friday, grossing $4.2 million. The Angelina Jolie/Ethan Hawke Se7en-lookalike will be lucky to grab a 3.0 multiplier, which would cough up a $12.5 million opening weekend, which I’m –sure- Warner Brothers will "say" they are happy with. They’ll have to be happy with third spot overall.
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless MindThree new date-movies were on tap for Friday, and all managed to do decently. The “internal epic” Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was the most handicapped, as it had a small opening weekend venue count of only 1,353 venues, but still managed an impressive $2.7 million on opening day. Fantastic word-of-mouth is in the cards for this one, so I’m giving it an internal multiplier of 3.3 and a potential opening weekend gross of $8.8 million.
The Passion of the ChristThe most notable holdover of the weekend is of course The Passion of the Christ, as the religious lotto win for Mel Gibson slips to second place this weekend. The Passion grossed $4.8 million on its fourth Friday of release, and the trend calls for a multiplier of 4.0, however, as the film begins to slow somewhat, I’m betting an older audience will carry the film on Saturday and Sunday. A 4.1 multiplier would give The Passion a weekend gross of about $19.6 million, and a decent weekend drop of 39%.
Notable HoldoversLost in the Friday night busyness was Johnny Depp’s Secret Window. The thriller amongst thrillers grossed $3.1 million, 61% behind last weekend’s opening day take.Check back tomorrow when I’ll be back with studio estimates for the weekend at the box office.
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Thursday, January 02, 2025
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