Weekend Forecast for July 9-11, 2004
By Reagen Sulewski
July 9, 2004
Period pieces rule the new films this weekend, though the time periods of the two major openers couldn't be more disparate if they tried. Both will try to unseat Spider-Man 2, but will undoubtedly find that too difficult a task.
If anything has a chance, though, it's Anchorman. A good alternate title here might be "Will Ferrell does his shtick in the '70s", not to be confused with "Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson do their shtick in the '70s" (aka Starsky and Hutch) or even "Mike Meyers... blah blah blah" (Austin Powers in Goldmember). So really, the setting is just the hook Ferrell can hang his coat on and riff on for 90 minutes. As San Diego news anchor Ron Burgundy (amazingly, not a porn name), Ferrell rules his own little roost. This world is shattered when the network brings in *gasp* a woman (played by Christina Applegate) to be his co-anchor. Yeah, it seems a bit trite, but as anyone who remembers the Connie Chung controversy, this was a real issue at one time.
Out of the late-'90s Saturday Night Live class, only Will Ferrell has really proven to have made the transition to the screen with any consistency. Beyond making a side career for himself as a latter-day Rip Taylor, appearing at random for cameos, he's also played a series of slightly disturbing and unsettling characters, as in Old School and Elf, the latter film grossing an astounding $173 million. While it's far too soon to tell if Anchorman can challenge that total figure, it shouldn't have any trouble with the $31 million to which Elf opened. Meta-promotion has gone overtime with this one, with Farrell obviously having a ton of fun with the character. Among the touches we've seen are promotional spots with him in character and fake archival footage of Ron Burgundy, both of which are the icing on the cake of a well run campaign. Look for a weekend figure of $37 million, placing it solidly between 50 First Dates and Along Came Polly for the top comedies of this year.
King Arthur takes historical revisionism to a new level, moving the time setting for the famous Knights of the Round Table back to the fifth century and making them officers in the Roman army who attempt to free the native Britons of the time from the Saxons (it didn't take). Clive Owen makes for a potentially badass Arthur, with It Girl Keira Knightly playing a slightly Druish Guinevere (and wearing the fifth century version of Milla Jovovich's outfit from The Fifth Element). Under the production of Jerry Bruckheimer and direction of Antoine Fuqua, the legend of King Arthur looks more like Braveheart than First Knight, and maybe that's a good thing, but the total absence of Merlin the magician basically makes this yet another war epic set in that vague swords and sandals era anywhere before the invention of gunpowder.
Opening on Wednesday to $4.8 million, it doesn't look to be setting the world on fire, despite the Bruckheimer mojo. This is the same slot that Pirates of the Caribbean opened in last summer, remember. The $13.5 million it grabbed on its opening day positively dwarfs King Arthur's figure, which is more akin to the numbers that White Chicks earned on its first day. Even though the legend of King Arthur is well recognized (okay, maybe not in this form), it's lacking in the humor that was one of the driving forces behind Pirates's success. Additionally, Clive Owen, while a terrific actor, simply doesn't have the recognition of a Johnny Depp. Look for a weekend total of $23 million, which is certainly no disaster, but leaves a bit to be desired.
Not to be forgotten (yet) among the opening films is Sleepover, a low-rent Mean Girls, starring Alexa Vega from the Spy Kid films and no one else yoyou know (except former Daily Show correspondent Steven Carell, also in Anchorman this weekend). A wish-fulfillment flick that's part Ferris Bueller, part Adventures in Babysitting and part every other film based around teenage girls, I can't imagine this doing much better than New York Minute and even that is being generous. The film is most notable, really, for being from Joe Nussbaum, who directed the very clever short George Lucas in Love, which I think is going to be remembered much longer than Sleepover. Give it $4 million for the weekend.
First place will again belong to Spider-Man 2, which didn't disappoint in either the box-office category or as a film. With the messy origin story out of the way, Sam Raimi was left to be able to tell a more confident story in the sequel. After the highest Wednesday figure ever, the film also shattered the six-day record with $180 million and as of Wednesday, was the fastest film to pass the $200 million mark, in just eight days.
There is naturally some concern that as a sequel, it won't hold up by its sheer nature. Shrek 2 puts to rest the notion that a sequel automatically has to disappear immediately (this year... the rules seem to change with each turn of the calendar), and the rapturous response that Spidey is receiving for his second outing virtually guarantees that it's going to stick around for awhile. The original performed the remarkable feat of keeping over 60% of its business in its second weekend despite opening so high. Due to the numerous demographic effects inherent to the July 4th holiday weekend and a two-day preview period, this sequel may be able to perform similarly, earning $58 million in its second weekend, putting it in striking distance of the fastest $300 million record, set just a month ago by Shrek 2 at 18 days.
Fahrenheit 9/11 sets a record with every day it's in release as by far the highest-grossing documentary of all time. It does look to be exhausting its audience a little, though it's hard to complain when it has reached almost the $70 million mark. I certainly wouldn't count it out as a force yet, especially since it is still finding new markets in which to open, adding another 286 venues this weekend. $100 million seems a foregone conclusion at some point in the near future for a total, with around $13 million coming this three-day period.
Some limited release films I've been passing over include The Clearing, a kidnapping drama starring Robert Redford and Willem Dafoe. It expands to 261 screens from the handful it had occupied previously. It looks to have been largely dumped with not a lot of promotion, perhaps judged too talky. It might end up with around $5-10 million total when all is said and done. Napoleon Dynamite, a Sundance darling, prizes eccentricity above almost anything else and has found its audience as a cult film. It's earned a couple million on a maximum of 142 screens, a pretty good feat for a film with inherently unattractive leads that no one has heard of.
|
Forecast: Weekend of July 9-11, 2004
|
Rank |
Film |
Number of
Sites |
Changes in Sites
from Last |
Estimated
Gross ($) |
|
1
|
Spider-Man 2
|
4,166
|
+14
|
58.6
|
|
2
|
Anchorman
|
3,091
|
New
|
37.4
|
|
3
|
King Arthur
|
3,086
|
New
|
23.2
|
|
4
|
Fahrenheit 9/11
|
2,011
|
+286
|
13.0
|
|
5
|
The Terminal
|
2,313
|
-469
|
5.6
|
|
6
|
Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story
|
2,444
|
-509
|
5.3
|
|
7
|
The Notebook
|
2,288
|
-35
|
5.2
|
|
8
|
White Chicks
|
2,201
|
-599
|
4.2
|
|
9
|
Sleepover
|
2,207
|
New
|
4.0
|
|
10
|
Shrek 2
|
2,142
|
-467
|
3.7
|
|
|
|
|
Print this column
