February 2007 Forecast
By Michael Bentley
February 3, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Fat people are funny. That is the message I take away from the trailers and clips I've seen of Norbit, starring Eddie Murphy. It's from the old standby comedic genre that Murphy himself revolutionized in The Nutty Professor. The rather distasteful plot is about a shy, unassuming man (Murphy) who gets engaged to a very controlling and large woman (also Murphy). (Ha ha!) But he meets the beautiful, much less fat, woman of his dreams (Thandie Newton) and tries to win her before its too late.
Murphy has had a rather up-and-down track record over the years. Since his creative peak in Coming to America, there have been several very large highs (Shrek, The Nutty Professor, Doctor Dolittle) and several more lows (Holy Man, The Adventures of Pluto Nash, I Spy). On top of everything else, there will likely be some renewed interest in Murphy since his recent career-topping Oscar nomination (and possible win) in Dreamgirls. For better or worse, this one has all the makings of being a high.
Opening weekend prediction: $28 million.
2) Ghost Rider
The next offering from Marvel in its quest to turn every last one of its comic books into a feature film is Ghost Rider, starring Nicolas Cage as the title character. The project had actually been trying to get off the ground for quite some time until Daredevil writer and director Mark Steven Johnson took the reigns. In the story, stunt driver Johnny Blaze becomes Ghost Rider after giving up his soul. He wants to save the life of his love (Eva Mendes) but must agree to become a vigilante - and gets a flaming skull and a fiery motorcycle - and fight an evil demon named Blackheart, the son of the devil. By no means is Ghost Rider a comic story known to all demographics like Spider-Man or Superman. He is a lower level, albeit warmly regarded by his fans, "antihero" with a much smaller fanbase. There is no doubt that Marvel hopes to replicate the success of Daredevil, which also opened in February, from four years ago with its $45 million opening weekend. But it will most likely end up somewhere in the respectable range of Blade ($17 million in 1998) or Hellboy ($23 million in 2004). Expect a quick drop after that, followed by a hit run on the video charts a few months later.
Stay tuned next year for film versions of Marvel comic books Sleepwalker and Moon Knight.
Opening weekend: $25 million.
3) Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls
It started two February's ago with Diary of a Mad Black Woman. That movie shocked Hollywood by garnering some $50 million during its domestic box office run, including $22 million in the opening weekend. Last February, despite his success a year before, Tyler Perry again surprised people with the success of Madea's Family Reunion which managed over $63 million total. The films have been critical disasters but have captured the hearts of urban audiences throughout the country.
Unlike the last two hit movies though, Perry isn't the star of Daddy's Little Girls. It is described as a "reverse Cinderella" tale, about a successful lawyer (Gabrielle Union) who falls for a mechanic (Idris Elba, who played Stringer Bell in The Wire) and father of three. But their romance hits a bump when the mechanic's ex-wife comes back into the picture and threatens to take away the children. Will the lack of Perry himself be a problem? And just what is Perry's secret to success? Will he hit the trifecta? The only thing in its way will be the screen count, but if exhibitors are smart and capable business folks, than that won't be a problem.
Opening weekend: $25 million.
4) The Number 23
I always think it is interesting that Jim Carrey, 'ol rubberface, the man known for much of his career doing lowbrow comedy is actually best in dramatic roles. In fact, he has received awards buzz for a couple of his previous roles (such as The Truman Show, Man on the Moon and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind). I don't know if that will be the case here, but he stars as a man who reads a book (The Number 23) and quickly becomes obsessed by it. The book seems to be based on his very own life, and he starts to notice the number 23 everywhere. To make things even creepier, the book ends with a murder. The thriller, naturally, opens on February 23rd.
Opening weekend: $23 million.
5) Hannibal Rising
Dr. Hannibal Lecter is one of the most fearsome and evil villains to ever grace the big screen. In fact, the American Film Institute ranked him first on their list of their top 50 movie villains of all-time back in 2003. The psychiatrist-turned-cannibal was created by author Thomas Harris and was first seen on screen in a small role in Michael Mann's Manhunter. His big "break" came in The Silence of the Lambs, and the success of that film spawned a sequel (Hannibal) and a remake of Manhunter (Red Dragon), both of which focused more and more on fan-favorite Lecter.
Now Lecter's "origins" as a psychopath and serial killer are explored in Hannibal Rising, which takes a look at a young Hannibal circa World War II. It sounds very interesting, and the best case possible upper limit for Hannibal Rising would seem to be Red Dragon. That one made almost $37 million in its opening frame. But I don't see how that will be remotely possible here, though, as Oscar-winner Anthony Hopkins is gone and in his place is complete unknown French actor Gaspard Ulliel. In fact, pretty much any resemblance to The Silence of the Lambs is gone other than the character of Lecter. Still, there will be enough curious people out there to make this one a mild hit.
Opening weekend: $18 million.
6) Music and Lyrics
Hugh Grant stars as a washed-up pop singer from the 1980s. But in a sign that he still has *it, after a run-in with one of the current leading ladies of the pop world, she asks him to write a song so that they can sing a duet together. He has just a few days to do it though, and he ends up getting help from an eccentric young woman, played by Drew Barrymore. You can guess what happen from there, I think. Otherwise, well, it wouldn't be a romantic comedy opening on Valentine's Day! In a sign that this may well have been written for Sandra Bullock (instead of Barrymore?), the movie's writer is Marc Lawrence, whose resume includes Forces of Nature, Miss Congeniality (and its sequel), and Two Weeks Notice. Grant, of course, is a veteran of the romantic comedy genre with many adoring fans. Assuming that it is actually a half-decent movie, Music and Lyrics has the makings of being a solid winter hit.
Opening weekend: $16 million.
7) Bridge to Terabithia
I'll admit: I've never even heard of this story. But apparently it is a very popular, and award-winning, children's fantasy novel. Go see it.
Opening weekend: $14 million.
8) Breach
Breach is based on the real-life story of FBI agent Robert Hanssen. You might recognize that name. He was arrested in 2001 and later convicted on charges of treason. Over some two decades he spied for the Soviet Union / Russia by selling U.S. intelligence secrets. In the film Chris Cooper stars as Hanssen and Ryan Philippe is Eric O'Neill, a junior agent who works for him. It becomes a game of cat and mouse as Hanssen gradually realizes that O'Neill was picked to watch him because the agency was starting to get suspicious of the traitor. We know what the end result is, so the key will be how well director Billy Ray (Shattered Glass) can make it new and thrilling. On paper Breach sounds pretty good and looks to be one of the few decent adult dramas of the season.
Opening weekend: $12 million.
9) Because I Said So
The tagline is "She's just your normal, overprotective, overbearing, over-the-top mother." Diane Keaton stars as a mother with two very successful (and married) daughters. And a third, younger daughter (Mandy Moore) whose crime is that she isn't yet married. Hilarity ensues. Be warned, however, that early reviews for the movie have been scathing.
Opening weekend: $11 million.
10) The Astronaut Farmer
I don't think I like the rather bland title, but The Astronaut Farmer, starring versatile actor Billy Bob Thornton sounds like a pretty good family movie. He stars as a man with a dream of going to space and being an astronaut. With his family's help, and despite financial difficulties and the government trying to stop him, he builds his own rocket. The very reputable cast also includes Virginia Madsen (who has two movies opening the same day), Tim Blake Nelson, Bruce Dern, and character actor J.K. Simmons. The marketing campaign isn't terribly impressive, so word-of-mouth will likely make or break this one.
Opening weekend: $7 million.
Just Under the Radar
Amazing Grace
Ioan Gruffudd (Reed Richards in the Fantastic Four) stars as William Wilberforce, a leader of the anti-slavery movement in England during the 18th century.
Black Snake Moan
Samuel L. Jackson stars in this Craig Brewer (Hustle & Flow) film as an old blues musician who takes in a trashy white girl (Christina Ricci) and tries to help her with all her problems.
The Lives of Others
In this award-winning German film, set during the waning years of the former East Germany, a playwright tries to gain favor with the party establishment by snitching on his lover, an actress.
* Please note that all opening weekend estimates are preliminary and do not account for final screen counts.