Academy Awards Nomination Analysis
By David Mumpower
January 23, 2007
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Since Best Picture is the category everyone obsesses about, we will lead the discussion with it. BOP's power rankings had predicted The Departed, The Queen, Babel, and Little Miss Sunshine would all get a nod. We prefer to focus on those and ignore the fact that the film we had ranked sixth, Letters from Iwo Jima, managed a bit of an upset in getting a nod. Just last night, my wife and I had a discussion over dinner about the possibility of it sneaking a spot but the contender we felt was vulnerable was not Dreamgirls. It was Babel. Instead, the Academy picked the Crash imitator over the lackluster musical.
Neither selection was optimal, so the individual decision is a bit irrelevant at the moment. What does matter is that Babel goes from being an assumed forgotten production to being a co-favorite with The Departed. BOP had considered Dreamgirls the second most likely movie to get a Best Picture nod and, in fact, considered it a slam dunk. With one Golden Globes winner out of the picture, the other moves up to the primary competition.
In creating our latest Power Rankings, BOP's staff determined that while The Departed's "best" win is the Broadcast Film Critics Association, it remains the favorite. We cannot in good conscience consider a movie we were uncertain would get a nod as the frontrunner. In point of fact, our group of experts was evenly divided on the subject of The Departed's primary competition. While some said Babel, others staunchly supported Little Miss Sunshine as the dark horse with a chance of providing an alternative to the dreary productions at the front of the Best Picture race. We do not expect The Queen or Letters from Iwo Jima to provide the same level of competition although each more than holds its own in terms of actual quality. This writer feels The Queen is easily the best movie out of the Best Picture contenders.
Best Actor is the other category that is being considered the biggest snub, but BOP had predicted that hype and a Golden Globes win would not be enough for Sacha Baron Cohen today. The five candidates we expected to receive a nomination all did so. The catch is that we had the wrong movie chosen for Leonardo DiCaprio.
In an odd confluence of events, the actor who stars in the year's frontrunner for Best Picture was nominated for a different role. His work on Blood Diamond, a lesser project, was trumpeted in place of The Departed, certainly an unexpected scenario. The fact that an actor may only be chosen once per category created a difficult campaign for DiCaprio's handlers, and the result is that he will need for Academy members to vote for his body of work in 2006 as much as (or arguably more than) his role in Blood Diamond. This likely places him in also-ran territory with Will Smith and Ryan Gosling although the Academy's love for DiCaprio keeps him in play over the next month.
BOP believes that this category is Forest Whitaker's to lose but we fear that he might have done so with his unfortunate speech at the Golden Globes. Obviously overcome with emotion, the accomplished writer/director was unable to display the wit and charm that has made him so popular in Hollywood. The result was an appearance that may make a certain segment of voters re-consider whether they want him potentially duplicating this task in front of a billion people. That opens the door for Academy favorite Peter O'Toole to potentially play the spoiler. O'Toole has been given an honorary Oscar but he has repeatedly stated he holds out hopes of earning one outright. His work in Venus does not have the pedigree of Whitaker's, but the chance to see a living legend finally get his due is a possibility some voters may find preferable to the idea of Whitaker stammering through another too-public 90 seconds.
Best Actress went as we predicted, also. This category borders on the dull with Helen Mirren as much of a lock to win as there is this awards season. BOP's power ranking of 98 reflects this. In the summer, Meryl Streep appeared to be a strong contender, but she has won enough, as has Dame Judi Dench. And Kate Winslet and Penelope Cruz will only be competing for best Red Carpet showing. Mirren is a hugely respected thespian who pulls off the near-impossible role of Queen Elizabeth with grace and aplomb. She somehow manages to make the viewer dislike her pompous nature throughout the entire movie only to force us in the end to acknowledge how much we have come to admire her as a gifted leader. Streep's whispery boss simply is not showy enough to compete with this.
Best Director is another category that played out as we expected. While BOP has been burned before, our staff firmly believes that this is Martin Scorsese's year. The only other person in the discussion is Babel director Alejandro González Iñárritu, but we just don't see how a movie that receives raves mainly for its acting gets a win for its director. Scorsese's struggles in winning this award are long chronicled, but he finally catches a break this year with the competition. Clint Eastwood has a recent win in this category while Frears' movie will get more attention in the Actress and Screenplay categories. Meanwhile, Paul Greengrass didn't see his movie, United 93, get a nomination. So, he is the proverbial "happy to be here" guy in the category. Unless Babel sweeps the major awards for which it is nominated, all of this sizes up as Scorsese finally getting his moment in the sun.
Best Supporting Actress is yet another category that fell into place as we forecasted. We are all just playing out the string waiting for Jennifer Hudson to pick up her prize. In the interim, Cate Blanchett and a trio of newcomers can enjoy their moment in the sun. This is Blanchett's third nomination and follows her 2005 win for portraying Katharine Hepburn in The Aviator. The rest of the nominees require an introduction. The fabulously named Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi comprise the Babel tandem. Unless you watch a lot of international television, you have never seen either one before. But the potential hilarity stemming from the idea of Billy Bush trying to pronounce either name during the live show is off the charts. The other nice story is the final nominee in the category, Abigail Breslin. The ten-year-old is taking time out of her busy schedule of playing the Nintendo Wii to put on make-up and a tiara and smile merrily when her name is called out in front of a billion people. If we're lucky, she might also perform her Super Freak routine.
In every life, some rain must fall. This is BOP's solace as we analyze the Best Supporting Actor category. To put it politely, we have done better. Only three of the five actors we expected to receive nominations did so. Frontrunners Eddie Murphy and Alan Arkin as well as Djimon Hounsou made the list. The Queen's Michael Sheen and (astonishingly) The Departed's Jack Nicholson were less fortunate. In their stead, Jackie Earle Haley of Little Children and Mark Wahlberg of The Departed were selected. Just so we are clear on this point, the Academy decided that Marky Mark offered a better performance than the Joker. The end of days is nigh. With the slight reconfiguring of the candidates, not much has changed overall, though. Murphy is still the heavy favorite with Arkin the only legitimate threat to his candidacy.
The other surprise in this morning's announcement came in the Best Animated Film category. Cars and Happy Feet, the clear frontrunners, both got their expected nods. The surprise was that Monster House, a movie that earned $73.7 million, got a nomination over Over the Hedge, a $155 million earner. What's even stranger than the financial discrepancy between the underachiever and the blockbuster is that Over the Hedge is much more of a crowd pleaser. With critics seeing both movies in largely the same light, the populist vote would seem to carry the day. Voters must have given a lot more deference to the Steven Spielberg name on the credits than was deserved.
Overall, we were 29 out of 33 (88%) with perfect performances in three categories, all the names right in one more, and a rough showing in Best Supporting Actor. None of the nominees for the 2007 Academy Awards was ranked any lower than eighth in our power rankings for the third consecutive year. If you will allow us a rare moment of self-indulgence, we're pretty good at this.
Will BOP be able to carry this success over into the actual awards predictions? Our 2006 performance will be hard to top, particularly given the chaotic nature of Best Supporting Actor as well as Best Original Screenplay, but we maintain our optimism. Keep checking the Awards section for any fluctuations in our power rankings over the next month.