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By Steve Mason
November 17, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Penguins starred in the one of the most successful documentaries in history, March of the Penguins ($77 million domestic). The stubby-legged flightless birds are the cutest creatures this side of the koala.
There have been some trailblazing movie penguins over the years that have paved the way for the Happy Feet birds. In the old Disney cartoon The Three Caballeros, there was a sad-sack penguin named Pablo. There was also spunky little Chilly Willy in his Sub-Arctic World who appeared in 50 or so theatrical cartoons by animator Walter Lantz from the 1950s to the early '70s. And, don't forget those penguin waiters in Mary Poppins, who 20 years later popped up in Who Framed Roger Rabbit.
Happy Feet, directed by George Miller and featuring the voices of Hugh Jackman, Nicole Kidman, Elijah Wood and Robin Williams, is by no means the final film performance by penguins. Next summer, Sony will release a penguin mockumentary called Surf's Up, and the penguin quartet of Skipper, Rico, Kowalski and Private from Madagascar (Dreamworks) will show up in Madagascar 2. Plus, there will almost certainly be a Happy Feet sequel.
Warner Bros., after a rocky summer, has the family film of the holiday season. Industry tracking has been monsterous for weeks, the ad campaign is on the money and the product tie-ins have saturated the media environment.
Adding charm to this one is the fact that these birds sing and dance. It's a throwback to Disney animated films from the late '80s/early '90s like The Little Mermaid, Beauty & the Beast and The Lion King. For me, the song-and-dance thing makes the picture a little more adult-friendly. The average kid doesn't know the Queen song Somebody To Love, but it's fun for us grown-ups to hear a classic like that.
This movie is a sub-freezing home run for Warner Bros., and by the end of Thanksgiving weekend, Happy Feet should be in excess of $80 million domestic. Look for $43-$46 million this weekend.
Happy Feet By The Numbers
Top 10 Animated Films of 2006 - Domestic Box Office
1. Cars - $244,082,000
2. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $195,330,000
3. Over the Hedge - $155,019.000
4. Monster House - $73,661,000
5. Barnyard: The Original Party Animals - $72,637,000
6. Curious George - $58,360,000
7. Hoodwinked - $51,386,000
8. Flushed Away - $40,520,000
9. The Wild - $37,384,000
10. The Ant Bully - $27,533,000
Top 5 Opening Weekends for Animated Films in 2006 - Domestic Box Office
1. 3/31 - Ice Age: The Meltdown - $68,033,000
2. 6/9 - Cars - $60,119,000
3. 5/19 - Over the Hedge - $38,457,000
4. 7/21 - Monster House - $22,217,000
5. Flushed Away - $18,814,000
Top 5 George Miller-Directed Movies - Domestic Box Office
1. The Witches of Eastwick - $63,766,000
2. Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome - $36,230,000
3. Twilight Zone: The Movie - $29,450,000
4. Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior - $23,667,000
5. Babe: Pig in the City - $18,319,000
Top 5 Hugh Jackman Films - Domestic Box Office
1. X-Men: The Last Stand - $234,362,000
2. X2: X-Men United - $214,949,000
3. X-Men - $157,299,000
4. Van Helsing - $120,177,000
5. Swordfish - $69,772,000
Top 5 Nicole Kidman Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Batman Forever - $184,031,000
2. Cold Mountain - $95,636,000
3. Days of Thunder - $82,670,000
4. The Interpreter - $72,708,000
5. Bewitched - $63,313,000
Top 5 Elijah Wood Films - Domestic Box Office
1. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King - $377,027,000
2. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - $339,789,000
3. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring - $313,364,000
4. Deep Impact - $140,464,000
5. Spy Kids 3D: Game Over - $111,761,000
Top 10 Robin Williams Movies - Domestic Box Office
1. Mrs. Doubtfire - $219,195,000
2. Aladdin - $217,350,000
3. Good Will Hunting - $138,433,000
4. Patch Adams- $135,026,000
5. Robots - $128,200,000
6. The Birdcage - $124,060,000
7. Hook - $119,654,000
8. Jumanji - $100,475,000
9. Dead Poets Society - $95,860,000
10. Flubber - $92,977,000
All-Time Top 5 Animated Films From Warner Bros. - Domestic Box Office
1. Polar Express - $173,675,000
2. Space Jam - $90,418,000
3. Pokeman: The First Movie - $85,744,000
4. Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride - $53,359,000
5. Pokeman: The Movie 2000 - $43,758,000
All-Time Top 5 Animated Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Shrek 2 - $441,226,000
2. Finding Nemo - $339.714,000
3. The Lion King - $328,541,000
4. Shrek - $267,665,000
5. The Incredibles - $261,441,000
The newest James Bond debuts this weekend as blonde Brit Daniel Craig plays 007 in Casino Royale (Sony). I haven't seen it yet, but the reviews are in the stratosphere. In fact the RottenTomatoes.com score as of press time is an astounding 96% Fresh.
As I studied the history of Mr. "Shaken Not Stirred", I was surprised that the Pierce Brosnan Bond films were so successful. The top four grossing Bond films of all-time were the four that starred the former Remington Steele actor. I remember them as gimmicky and riddled with political correctness.
Here are the men who played Bond, ranked according to the total box office their 007 films delivered:
Total Box Office For Each Actor To Play Bond - Domestic Box Office
1. Pierce Brosnan - 4 movies - $519,618,000
2. Roger Moore - 7 movies - $346,527,000
3. Sean Connery - 7 movies - $297,901,000
4. Timothy Dalton - 2 movies - $85,852,000
5. David Niven - 1 movie - $25,000,000
6. Peter Sellers - 1 movie - $25,000,000
7. George Lazenby - 1 movie - $22,774,000
Brosnan and Roger Moore both came off as lightweights. Craig appears to be in the Sean Connery mold - testosterone and tail. Plus, Craig has a real acting resume. His turn as the killer Perry Smith in Infamous, this year's take on Capote, is worthy of Oscar consideration.
Casino Royale, from director Martin Campbell, will deliver the second best weekend opening in the history of the franchise. The folks at Sony would love to see a four at the front of the weekend haul, but I say it'll come up just short. Look for $36-$39 million for the new blonde Bond.
Casino Royale By The Numbers
All-Time Top 10 James Bond Movies - Domestic Box Office
1. Die Another Day - $160,942,000
2. The World Is Not Enough - $126,943,000
3. Tomorrow Never Dies - $125,304,000
4. GoldenEye - $106,429,000
5. Moonraker - $$70,308,000
6. Octopussy - $67,893,000
7. Thunderball - $63,595,000
8. Never Say Never Again - $55,432,000
9. For Your Eyes Only - $54,812,000
10. The Living Daylights - $51,185,.000
All-Time Top 5 Opening Weekends For James Bond Movies - Domestic Box Office
1. Die Another Day - $47,072,000
2. The World Is Not Enough - $35,519,000
3. GoldenEye - $26,205,000
4. Tomorrow Never Dies - $25,143,000
5. The Living Daylights - $11,051,000
Top 5 Martin Campbell-Directed Films - Domestic Box Office
1. GoldenEye - $106,429,000
2. The Mask of Zorro - $94,095,000
3. Vertical Limit - $69,243,000
4. The Legend of Zorro - $45,575,000
5. Defenseless - $6,413,000
Top 5 Daniel Craig Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Lara Croft: Tomb Raider - $131,168,000
2. Road To Perdition - $104,454,000
3. Munich - $47,403,000
4. Elizabeth - $30,034,000
5. A Kid In King Arthur's Court - $13,406,000
Top 10 Judi Dench Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Die Another Day - $160,942,000
2. The World Is Not Enough - $126,943,000
3. Tomorrow Never Dies - $125,304,000
4. GoldenEye - $106,429,000
5. Shakespeare In Love - $100,317,000
6. Chocolat - $71,509,000
7. The Chronicles of Riddick - $57,761,000
8. Home On the Range - $50,030,000
9. Pride & Prejudice - $38,405,000
10. A Room With A View - $20,966,000
The other new wide release picture this weekend is the horribly conceived Let's Go To Prison (Universal). Actor Dax Shepard will hopefully drift toward obscurity after this one. He completes an embarrassing trifecta of awful films - the first two being Idiocracy and Employee of the Month.
Hopefully there won't be any long-term damage to the careers of Will Arnett, who was so good on Arrested Development, or Chi McBride, who is always good and is currently appearing on the TV series The Nine. This picture deserves to die quietly, and I think it will do just that with a $3-$6 million opening weekend.
Let's Go To Prison By The Numbers
All-Time Top 10 Prison Movies - Domestic Box Office
1. The Green Mile - $136,801,000
2. Stir Crazy - $101,300,000
3. Papillon - $53,267,000
4. O Brother, Where Art Thou? - $45,512,000
5. Escape From Alcatraz - $43,000,000
6. Dead Man Walking - $39,363,000
7. Brubaker - $37,121,000
8. Midnight Express - $35,000,000
9. Shawshanke Redemption - $28,341,000
10. Ernest Goes To Jail - $25,029,000
Top 3 Dax Shepard Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Cheaper By the Dozen - $138,614,000
2. Without A Paddle - $58,169,000
3. Zathura: A Space Adventure - $29,230,000
Top 3 Will Arnett Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Ice Age: The Meltdown - $195,330,000
2. Monster-In-Law - $82,931,000
3. RV - $71,402,000
Top 3 Chi McBride Films - Domestic Box Office
1. I, Robot - $144,801,000
2. Gone In 60 Seconds - $101,648,000
3. The Terminal - $77,872,000
There are three new limited releases this weekend. I expect a modest opening for Richard Linklater's problematic Fast Food Nation (Fox Searchlight). For Your Consideration (Warner Independent) bows at 18 locations before expanding for Thanksgiving. Finally, Bobby (MGM) will get a wide release on Thanksgiving Day, but it receives two showcase runs, one in NYC and one in LA, this weekend.
Here's how I see the weekend:
1. Happy Feet - $45 million
2. Casino Royale - $39 million
3. Borat - $19 million
4. The Santa Clause 3 - $9 million
5. Flushed Away - $8 million
*Let's Go To Prison - $3 million
*Fast Food Nation - 321 locations - $5,000 per - $1.6 million
*For Your Consideration - 18 locations - $17,500 per - $315,000
*Bobby - 2 locations - $50,000 per - $100,000