Now Playing: Weekend Box Office
By Steve Mason
October 12, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Some people in the film industry believe that there is some real horror film fatigue in the marketplace. Down-and-dirty scary movies have been a very reliable way to win a weekend, especially in the spring and fall. Earlier this year, mediocre films like Underworld: Evolution, When a Stranger Calls and Silent Hill all managed to scare up opening weekends of $20 million plus, but Texas Chainsaw: The Beginning failed to top $20 million last weekend.
These inexpensively-budgeted horror flicks rely on the Under 25 set to succeed, and it's getting harder to surprise the MySpace, FaceBook, iPod generation. Last week, the Texas Chainsaw numbers were depressed in part because the Under 25s did show up to see The Departed, which turned out to be a mega-hit with all demos. Plus, Employee of the Month performed better-than-expected, sapping Leatherface of some of his ticket-buyers.
This week, The Grudge 2 has the Under 25s to itself. The first film, based on Takashi Shimizu's Ju-On, generated $170 million at the worldwide box office and, if anything, became more popular in the US with its DVD release. The Grudge was clever - so clever, in fact, that the sequel is golden even without star Sarah Michelle Geller (she does make a fleeting appearance). Some in our world of prognostication have projected as much as $40 million this weekend for The Grudge 2. I say horror fatigue limits this Sony offering to $23-$26 million.
The Grudge 2 By The Numbers
Top 5 Horror Films of 2006 – Domestic Box Office
1. Scary Movie 4 - $90,710,000
2. Monster House - $73,034,000
3. Underworld: Evolution - $62,318,000
4. The Omen - $54,607,000
5. Final Destination 3 - $54,098,000
Top 5 Horror Film Opening Weekends of 2006 – Domestic Box Office
1. Scary Movie 4 - $40,222,000
2. Underworld: Evolution - $26,857,000
3. Monster House - $22,217,000
4. When a Stranger Calls - $21,607,000
5. Silent Hill - $20,152,000
All-Time Top 5 Horror Sequels – Domestic Box Office
1. Hannibal - $165,092,000
2. Scary Movie 3 - $110,003,000
3. Scream 2 - $101,363,000
4. Scary Movie 4 - $90,710,000
5. Scream 3 - $89,143,000
I may have the minority opinion on this, but Robin Williams last made me laugh in Mrs. Doubtfire. If you pay attention to one of his sadly manic appearances on Leno, maybe one out of every ten things he says is actually funny. Saying a lot of things really fast isn't actually comedy. It's desperation.
Some of Williams' more recent films have been obnoxious and cloying and obvious. Patch Adams made $135 million domestic, but c'mon, who liked that movie? If a doctor with a red rubber nose ever comes to my hospital room, he's getting a bedpan upside the head. And don't even get me started on Jakob the Liar (otherwise known as Good Morning Buchenwald).
Williams and Director Barry Levinson teamed-up on the wildly-successful Good Morning Vietnam, and, they're together again for Man of the Year. People may forget that they also joined forces on the disastrous Toys ($23 million domestic). This political satire will not be a crash-and-burn like Toys, but, until I see evidence to the contrary, people don't like politics at their local multiplex.
Universal is dumping a ton of advertising money on this one late, but I'm told that it's not showing up in the tracking. My guess is that Man of the Year is too dumb for the Hardball/Hannity & Colmes/C-Span crowd and too smart for the average weekend moviegoer. Look for $9-$11 million here.
Man of the Year By The Numbers
Top 10 Barry Levinson-Directed Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Rain Man - $172,825,000
2. Good Morning Vietnam - $123,922,000
3. Disclosure - $83,015,000
4. Sleepers - $53,315,000
5. Bugsy - $49,114,000
6. The Natural - $47,951,000
7. Wag the Dog - $43,061,000
8. Bandits - $41,575,000
9. Sphere - $37,020,000
10. Tin Men - $25,411,000
Top 10 Robin Williams Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Mrs. Doubtfire - $219,195,000
2. Aladdin - $217,350,000
3. Good Will Hunting - $138,433,000
4. Patch Adams- $135,026,000
5. Robots - $128,200,000
6. The Birdcage - $124,060,000
7. Hook - $119,654,000
8. Jumanji - $100,475,000
9. Dead Poets Society - $95,860,000
10. Flubber - $92,977,000
Top 5 Laura Linney Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. The Truman Show - $125,618,000
2. Mystic River - $90,135,000
3. Congo - $81,022,000
4. The Exorcism of Emily Rose - $75,072,000
5. Dave - $63,270,000
Top 5 Christopher Walken Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. Wedding Crashers - $209,255,000
2. Catch Me If You Can - $164,615,000
3. Batman Returns - $162,831,000
4. Click - $137,340,000
5. Pulp Fiction - $107,928,000
All-Time Top 5 Political Movies – Domestic Box Office
1. The Manchurian Candidate (2004) - $65,955,000
2. Dave - $63,270,000
3. The American President - $60,079,000
4. The Distinguished Gentleman - $46,666,000
5. Wag the Dog - $43,061,000
Fox will try to turn a professional wrestler into a movie star this weekend as WWE star John Cena opens in The Marine. The history of pro wrestlers on the big screen is better than you might think:
All-Time Top 10 Movies to Feature a Professional Wrestler – Domestic Box Office
1. Spider-Man (Randy Savage as Bonesaw McGraw) - $403,706,000
2. The Mummy Returns (The Rock as The Scorpion King) - $202,019,000
3. The Godfather (Lenny "The Bull" Montana as Luca Brasi) - $133,698,000
4. Rocky III (Hulk Hogan as Thunderlips) - $124,146,000
5. The Scorpion King (The Rock as The Scorpion King) - $91,047,000
6. Predator (Jesse Ventura as Blain) - $59,735,000
7. Be Cool (The Rock as Elliot Wilhelm) - $56,046,000
8. The Rundown (The Rock as Beck) - $47,726,000
9. Walking Tall (The Rock as Chris Vaughn) - $46,437,000
10. Gridiron Gang (The Rock as Sean Porter) - $37,065,000
That list doesn't even include Andre the Giant as Fezzik in The Princess Bride ($31 million domestic), George "The Animal" Steele as Tor Johnson in Ed Wood ($6 million domestic) or Roddy Piper as Nada in They Live ($13 million domestic).
No, the fact that dooms The Marine isn't that it stars a pro wrestler. It's doomed because it's a bad movie that wasn't screened for critics, the trades or maybe even John Cena's family. Still, there are probably enough 12- 17-year-old wrestling fans to get this throw-away picture to $5-$7 million.
Here's how your humble columnist and independent theatre owner sees this weekend (October 13th - 15th) playing out:
1. The Grudge 2 - $25 million
2. The Departed - $16 million
3. Open Season - $11 million
4. Man of the Year - $10 million
5. Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning - $7 million
*The Marine - $6 million