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By Steve Mason
July 13, 2006
BoxOfficeProphets.com
A schlocky monster flick called The Relic (Paramount) starring Tom Sizemore and Penelope Ann Miller opened on January 10, 1997 and generated a decent $9 million on that weekend. January is notorious as being a dumping ground for the lamest of studio fare, so it didn't take much to be #1 at the box office.
In January of 1997, I was hosting a show called The Late, Late Radio Show with Tom Snyder & Steve Mason for CBS Radio Network, and both Sizemore and Miller joined me on separate broadcasts the week after the opening. Tom, who would later be convicted of beating up his girlfriend Heidi Fleiss, told me, "It's a nice feeling to know that Tom Sizemore can open a movie." On the next night's program, Miller proclaimed, "Finally, I got a chance to prove that I can open a movie on my own."
Despite their Hollywood delusions, the big scary monster opened the movie. The average ticket-buyer for The Relic couldn't have picked Tom Sizemore or Penelope Ann Miller out of a lineup.
In an otherwise dismal summer, Wedding Crashers (New Line) was the surprise box office monster of 2005. Completely unheralded, the Owen Wilson/Vince Vaughn comedy scored a respectable $34 million on the weekend of 7/15/05 and then rode great word-of-mouth to $209 million domestically. Now Universal hopes to achieve similar success with You, Me and Dupree starting tomorrow (7/14).
It's been an underwhelming year for Universal. Nanny McPhee, Curious George and The Fast & the Furious: Tokyo Drift all underperformed. Slither and American Dreamz were unmitigated bombs. United 93 is a brilliant film, but a tough sell. Only Inside Man with $88 million domestic and The Break-Up, which has generated $114 million to-date, can be described as hits.
You, Me and Dupree stars Kate Hudson, Owen Wilson and Matt Dillon, and the question is, "Can any of the three open a movie?" The answer is no.
Owen Wilson is the closest to being the sort of box office bait that studios love.
Top 5 Owen Wilson Films - Domestic Box Office
1. Meet the Fockers - $279,261,000
2. Wedding Crashers - $209,2555,000
3. Cars - $205,908,000
4. Armageddon - $201,578,000
5. Meet the Parents - $166,244,000
Owen has been a part of some box office smashes, but he owes a huge debt to Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn, Pixar and a huge asteroid plummeting toward earth. He also rode Stiller's coattails in Starsky & Hutch and Zoolander, was an ensemble player in The Royal Tenenbaums and The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou and paired with Jackie Chan in Shanghai Noon and Shanghai Knights.
Don't get me wrong. I'm an Owen Wilson fan especially as a writer (The Royal Tenenbaums, Rushmore and Bottle Rocket), but he can't single-handedly open a movie, and You, Me and Dupree teams him with lesser lights Matt Dillon and Kate Hudson.
Top 5 Matt Dillon Films - Domestic Box Office
1. There's Something About Mary - $176,484,000
2. Herbie: Fully Loaded - $66,023,000
3. In & Out - $63,856,000
4. Crash - $54,580,000
5. The Outsiders - $25,697,000
Top 5 Kate Hudson Films - Domestic Box Office
1. How To Lose A Guy in 10 Days - $105,813,000
2. Skeleton Key - $47,907,000
3. Raising Helen - $37,486
4. Almost Famous - $32,534,000
5. Alex & Emma - $14,218,000
It's fair to say that Matt Dillon has been underrated as an actor for most of his career, and he finally received his due for Crash with a Best Supporting Actor nomination at this year's Oscars. But he's never opened a movie and despite those huge, fake teeth in There's Something About Mary, he's not exactly a comedy guy.
Kate Hudson is the most problematic of the three Dupree players.
You, Me and Dupree is opening on the same day as Little Man (Sony), the latest ribald comedy from the Wayans brothers, and these guys know what they're doing.
Top 5 Keenan Ivory Wayans-directed Films – Domestic Box Office
1. Scary Movie - $157,019,000
2. White Chicks - $70,831,000
3. Scary Movie 2 - $71,308,000
4. A Low Down Dirty Shame - $29,392,000
5. Don't Be A Menace To South Central While Drinking Your Juice In the
Hood - $20,109,000
I'm told that the tracking for Little Man is strong, especially among under-25 males. That's not a surprise given the rude, White Chicks-style comedy. But it's also the first choice among under-25 females. In fact, my sources tell me that Little Man even holds a tracking advantage over Dupree among 25-plus women.
In order to generate a Wedding Crashers-style hit, Universal needed to appeal to women, and that's Kate Hudson's job. She has not delivered.
There are certain actresses who appeal to women. Reese Witherspoon is currently the best example. Cameron Diaz and Drew Barrymore have similar appeal. Julia Roberts, Sandra Bullock, Meg Ryan and, yes, Hudson's mother Goldie Hawn, have filled this niche in the past. The trick is to be cute, but not too sexy.
For whatever reason, Hudson hasn't "clicked" with women, and it looks like the fatal flaw in You, Me and Dupree. Because Universal has managed to get the film on 3,000-plus screens as compared to 2,300 or so for Little Man, Dupree will likely top the Wayans for the #2 spot at the box office this weekend, but don't be surprised if Sony's offering pulls the upset.
Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Man's Chest will easily win the week probably sailing past $250 million in just ten days. The odds are that You, Me and Dupree has a ceiling of about $65 million in total domestic box office and probably less.
Next week, a chat with the principals from First Independent Pictures who are orchestrating three releases simultaneously – Mini's First Time, starring Alec Baldwin, Nikki Reed, Luke Wilson and Carrie-Anne Moss; Danny Leiner's The Great New Wonderful, which New York Magazine calls "The first great 9/11 film"; and David Mamet's Edmond.