Monday Morning Quarterback Part II
By BOP Staff
November 21, 2012
BoxOfficeProphets.com
Kim Hollis: Now that the franchise has ended (for now), what are your overall thoughts regarding the Twilight phenomenon?
Jason Barney: I think it is significant to note that many of the largest opening weekends of all time come from stories that started as books. Five of the top nine largest weekends - I was surprised by that number. The list includes the last of the Harry Potters, three of the Twilights, and Hunger Games. Each of these has an appeal to younger crowds who tend to anticipate the opening of a film a bit more than older audiences. The energy tends front load results of films a bit, but they do open big.
The other aspect of this is the popularity of the books. I can remember when the Harry Potter books were the craze. Then the Twilight series. I was amazed at how many people were reading them. Now it is the Hunger Games. No clue what the next one will be, but when the energy of the teenage imagination becomes captured by some of these characters, it means huge dollars for movie studios.
Edwin Davies: I understand it, acknowledge that it is a thing, and hate it. Truly, truly hate it. I can't speak to the quality of the books since I haven't read them, but I have seen all the films with the exception of the new one (it was for a podcast and no, I'm not proud of myself) and they are not only terrible films - although the first two are fun to mock; the third and fourth are too dull to make fun of - but ones which I think are, at best, retrograde in their attitudes towards women. They're meant to be these big, epic romance stories, but all they amount to is a dumb morality play about chastity wrapped up in vampire mythology which reduces its female lead to a milksop who spends 80% of the time moping over her boyfriend, rather than, I don't know, doing something to move the story along. I find it disconcerting that a lot of young women seem to be obsessed with this version of love and this image of femininity, and can only hope that its the Katniss-emulators who wind up inheriting the earth, and not the Bella ones.
Felix Quinonez: I guess I hadn't really though about this before, but I haven't read one of the books or seen any of these movies. But I do really hate this franchise, it just bothers me and from what I hear the movies are terrible and the books are really badly written. That being said, I'm just glad it's over.
Matthew Huntley: As the above posts indicate, the Twilight series seems to trigger an extreme reaction from both sides. You either love it or hate it (and, almost by default, love to hate it). I actually think I fall somewhere in the middle. Yes, for the most part, the movies are poorly made, poorly written, poorly acted and ultimately dry. I've only marginally recommended the second and fifth films in the franchise, but I have no reason to see any of them again. They leave no lasting impression and there's nothing I ever took away from them besides mindless drama. Yet, with that said, there's nothing about them I out-rightly despise, either. They don't annoy me so much as simply have no real effect on me. I'm glad we/Hollywood can finally move on, but I really never gave the series a second thought.
Reagen Sulewski: While I never really fell for the Harry Potter phenomenon, I at least respected and understood it, and it had a reasonably well thought out arc story-wise. Twilight seems to me to be the inverse of that in every way, down to its themes, and the "bake your cake and have it too" conclusion. I do think we can go overboard in declaring that a culture's entertainment defines them and dooms them to mediocrity, because it's just movies, people, but you do wish they actually had something that was actually good to look back on when they discover nostalgia in five or six years. To me, that its own star hated the films more than anyone else speaks volumes.
Jim Van Nest: Maybe I'm just wanting some positive mail or something, but again, I find the Twilight phenomenon amazing. I haven't read the books and I saw the first two films. Didn't like 'em, didn't hate 'em. They just "were" for me. I still don't get the massive hate on this, especially from folks who've never read a book nor seen a film. The phenomenon itself is impressive. Again, not as widely targeted as something like Potter or Hunger Games, Twilight found and created what might be considered the most loyal audience of any franchise in history. When you look at the fact that the last numbers I could find had Potter outselling Twilight by a factor of four (sure, there are more Potter books...so, what, they still doubled?), the series finales aren't that far apart. That's an incredibly loyal fan base that proved it with their attendance and their money.
Max Braden: To twist a quote from PCU, it's like, if you're nice to them, young adult girls will bring you money. I think that's something that Hollywood keeps forgetting and then 'discovering' over and over. It worked for Elvis, it worked for Titanic, and it worked for Breaking Dawn and The Hunger Games (and, too, 50 Shades of Grey). Focusing too much on male-dominated movies centered around blood and guts (okay, there's vampire crossover there I guess), can just leave money sitting on the table. I think Twilight is also another example, after Harry Potter, of how significant the young adult book industry has become over the last 10 years. I don't think these movies would have done nearly as well in the '80s and '90s. Whether that will remain true for the next 10 to 20 years is hard to know, but I imagine those property sales are going strong now.
Kim Hollis: A long time ago, before anyone knew what it was, I read the first Twilight book. I thought it was overwrought but entertaining enough. (Oddly enough, there's a much better young adult vampire book called Sunshine that came out not long before Twilight hit shelves. It just didn't strike the same chord.) I never could get into the second book, and upon re-reading the first, I found it a little boring and whiny. I do see why girls (and women) enjoy it, but ultimately, it's too overwrought for me.
I've never seen any of the movies, other than about five minutes of the first one (the baseball scene, I think). I don't really feel the need to see them, either. I have a lot of friends who have been dedicated to the series, though, and I do think it's kind of nice that there's a franchise out there that women have embraced. It's not any worse than Sex and the City.
David Mumpower I watched the first three Twilight movies before skipping the fourth one, an unusual step for me as I attempt to see every wide release each year. The primary enjoyment I received from any of it was the vampire baseball scene Kim mentioned because that is as unintentionally hilarious as anything I've seen since MST3K ended. While I receive no entertainment from the Twilight franchise, this is not a new experience for me.
I have maintained for many years now that popularity is a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. As much as the thought annoys some, Twilight now is no different from Star Wars from 1977 to 1983. The quality of the movies was irrelevant. A herd mentality was triggered where consumers accepted in their collective conscious that Star Wars something to love. Twilight is the female equivalent of it in that people discover a certain level of comfort liking the same thing as their peers. Star Wars is still popular 30 years later. We will see if the same holds true of Twilight. I suspect that this brand has legs, aggravating as that thought is.
With regards to the box office, there are not enough superlatives in the English language to glorify the franchise the appropriate amount. Ignoring this week's results with Breaking Dawn Part 2, a financial investment of $265 million has produced $1.8 billion in global revenue. This is a return of $6.80 for every dollar spent. If you manage this ratio buying stocks, the SEC will investigate you for insider trading. The accomplishment boggles the mind.
It's Lincoln vs. vampires for a second time in 2012
Kim Hollis: Steven Spielberg's Lincoln opened to $21 million. What are your thoughts on this result?
Jason Barney: I have always been fascinated by Lincoln. I think most Americans are. Going all the way back to Ken Burns series, The Civil War, there is just a desire by each generation to explore the tall, lanky, small town guy who became the leader of the United States. Lincoln is one of the icons of American history, if not the most popular president, so it is only logical Hollywood would explore stories about him.
The solid reviews are going to help push that $21 million dollar figure a lot higher in the coming weeks. I know this is a film I plan on seeing and a lot of people I talk to are eager to see it also. The strength of the top 10 means it will never be #1 at the box office, but it is easily going to make back the amount of money it took to make it. It is nice to see a historical film breaking out like this.
Edwin Davies: Well, I for one had no idea that there was this much pent up demand for a prequel to W.
This is towards the higher end of what I was expecting for this weekend. I thought it would wind up somewhere in the mid to high teens based largely on the fact that this seemed like it was going to be a pretty hectic weekend, and it was more likely to get squeezed out as a result. However, the strength of the film in the face of both Twilight and Skyfall, which are much flashier, suggests that the strong reviews and word-of-mouth are convincing people that it isn't just a dry history lesson and is worth seeking it out. The Spielberg name obviously has a huge cache when it comes to American audiences, and when it is coupled with such fascinating, near-mythic subject matter as Lincoln, people are going to be interested. If it expands over the next few weeks - which it has plenty of room to do since it was in relatively few screens for a wide release - then I think we're going to see a very strong run, followed by a considerable amount of awards attention.
Felix Quinonez: I'm very excited about this opening. I'm a huge Spielberg fan and I'm always rooting for him. But I also see this as a win for smart thoughtful movies. Not only that but I think the fact that it overperformed will help it gain some more attention which will help it attract more audiences and hopefully attention come Oscars time.
Matthew Huntley: This is more or less in line with expectations, especially after coming off a huge weekend in limited release. But I'm not sure how much appeal this film will have over the next couple months. I saw it tonight and while it's good, it's also dry in parts. For every fine performance, there's a grandiose speech, and the score is hokey to the point of getting on your nevers. It will probably show strong legs simply because of its older-skewing audience, but I don't think its numbers will be all that big. I'm predicting $80-$90 million overall.
Kim Hollis: I think this will continue to hold up well, primarily on the strength of very positive reviews, not to mention the fact that people are simply fascinated by Abraham Lincoln. It's also the kind of movie that will engage an older demographic, and it can sometimes take several weeks for them to get to the theater. Since I'm pretty confident this is going to have plenty of awards attention, the momentum should be sustained through the holiday season.
David Mumpower: I guess I am more impressed by this result than the rest of you. Last December, Spielberg released a pair of movies I considered to be much more commercial, The Adventures of Tintin and War Horse. While comparing opening weekends would be inappropriate, neither of those titles reached $80 million. Based on Thanksgiving trending as well as awards contention, Lincoln has a solid shot at clearing $100 million. I had expected a Munich performance ($47.4 million). If we look at this analytically, Spielberg's commercial movies such as Minority Report, Catch Me If You Can, War of the Worlds and Indiana Jones and the Refrigerator of Nuclear Repelling reach $100 million. His less conventional features such as The Terminal, AI and Amistad do not. Even Schindler's List fell short of $100 million. A presidential biopic seems like an unlikely box office blockbuster yet Lincoln is performing brilliantly.