Valentine's Day Is Dated

By Tim Briody

February 14, 2004

Yes, I am a pirate. 200 years too late.

50 First Dates

With a first day estimated figure of $10.5 million, one can't help but feel underwhelmed by the performance of 50 First Dates. Even still, that's not a number to sneeze at, and it will certainly see a decent boost on Valentine's Day.

The best comparison here is clearly The Wedding Singer, and though we're dealing with much larger numbers, a 3.6 multiplier for the weekend seems like a safe bet. That places 50 First Dates at $37.8 million for the weekend, though don't be too shocked if studio estimates nudge it to $40 million.

Notable Holdovers

Barbershop 2: Back In Business plummets 65% in its second Friday. Textbook sequel-itis is at work here, and even if it cuts its losses to 60%, it's looking to fall under $10 million for the weekend.

Miracle falls 44% from last Friday. That's perhaps a bit more than expected, but it's not in as bad shape as Barbershop 2. Give it an overall decline of under 40% for the weekend, and much lower drops from here on out.

Catch That Kid is off just 27%, largely thanks to schools being closed for the holiday weekend. The overall weekend decline could be as low as 20%.

Extrapolated Friday-Sunday Estimates for the Top Ten
Projected
Rank
Film
Estimated Gross (M$)
1
50 First Dates
37.8
2
Miracle
12.0
3
Barbershop 2: Back in Business
9.7
4
Catch That Kid
4.6
5
The Butterfly Effect
4.2
6
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
3.7
7
You Got Served
3.6
8
Along Came Polly
3.4
9
Mystic River
3.0
10
Monster
2.7

View other columns by Tim Briody

     

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